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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be hard/ tough, to properly forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which normally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant perception, of his statements, integrated with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s consistent, evident, appealing to the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, attitude relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to interest his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, along with the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will try to, quickly, consider, take a look at, review, and talk about, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the potential citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not obtain the Democratic election, and, in the basic election, a substantial number of them, either, elected Trump, among the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, should have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to many of them! Elizabeth Warren has attacked other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without sufficient detail, regarding costs! The genuine question, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their supporters, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the friend of the President, because, his core fans/ base, almost guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President campaigns, against them, utilizing scary rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant barrage, and scare – tactics, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and impacts: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys indicate Biden is still leading, in numerous states, along with general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, should be concerning, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, especially thinking about the already, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his boy, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, certain elements of the electorate, while likewise, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an option, has recently, gotten into conflicts with Warren, and does not appear, trusted, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise prospects, or won’t gain enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, unique technique, avoiding the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and hence, not taking part in the party disputes, and greatly spending his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will gain sufficient traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of skills, experience, knowledge, Executive acumen, and suggests to win the basic election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it seems, President Trump, despite lots of handicaps, begins as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Twenty Dollar Bill Trump 2020…