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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ tough, to properly predict. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which usually, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant understanding, of his declarations, combined with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, evident, interesting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to attract his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this short article will attempt to, briefly, think about, analyze, examine, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the prospective voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in sufficient numbers, felt bitter, he did not get the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a substantial variety of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, must have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually attacked other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without enough information, regarding expenses! The genuine concern, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their advocates, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core fans/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the way, the President projects, against them, utilizing scary rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant bombardment, and scare – techniques, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls indicate Biden is still leading, in lots of states, as well as total, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be worrying, as to how, he must stand – up, to Trump, specifically thinking about the currently, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his son, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, certain aspects of the electorate, while likewise, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has actually recently, gotten into conflicts with Warren, and does not appear, relied on, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise candidates, or won’t gain adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, distinct technique, skipping the very first 4 primaries, declining any outside funds, and therefore, not participating in the celebration disputes, and heavily spending his own monies, on his project. Whether this will acquire adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the mix of abilities, experience, expertise, Executive acumen, and suggests to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it appears, President Trump, in spite of lots of handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Tubman Dollar Bill…