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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to acknowledge, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be hard/ difficult, to precisely forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to point to the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which normally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant perception, of his declarations, integrated with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s constant, apparent, appealing to the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, attitude regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to appeal to his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this article will attempt to, quickly, think about, analyze, examine, and talk about, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (in other words, they may not, present, a reliable message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: 2 of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the possible voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a significant variety of them, either, chose Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, must have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, strategies, without adequate information, regarding costs! The real concern, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their advocates, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, nearly guarantee him, at least 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President projects, against them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant barrage, and scare – tactics, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, lots of Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls show Biden is still leading, in lots of states, in addition to general, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, must be concerning, regarding how, he should stand – up, to Trump, especially considering the already, existing attempts, at implicating him, and his son, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, specific elements of the electorate, while likewise, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an alternative, has actually just recently, entered conflicts with Warren, and does not appear, relied on, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise prospects, or won’t gain adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, distinct strategy, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and hence, not participating in the party disputes, and heavily investing his own monies, on his project. Whether this will get sufficient traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of abilities, experience, competence, Executive acumen, and suggests to win the basic election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, regardless of numerous handicaps, starts as the chances – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump Tower T Shirt…