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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ difficult, to precisely predict. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which generally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant understanding, of his declarations, combined with the look of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s constant, apparent, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to interest his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, along with the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election outcome is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will try to, briefly, think about, examine, review, and discuss, 5 factors, the President might be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: 2 of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the possible voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in adequate numbers, frowned at, he did not acquire the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a significant variety of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, ought to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has attacked other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, plans, without enough information, concerning expenses! The genuine question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided celebration, is the buddy of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, almost guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President projects, versus them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous barrage, and scare – strategies, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls show Biden is still leading, in lots of states, along with general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, should be worrying, as to how, he needs to stand – up, to Trump, specifically considering the already, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his child, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might enthuse, certain components of the electorate, while also, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has actually recently, entered disagreements with Warren, and does not appear, trusted, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise candidates, or won’t get adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, distinct method, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outdoors funds, and hence, not participating in the celebration arguments, and heavily spending his own monies, on his project. Whether this will get adequate traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or someone, with the mix of abilities, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it appears, President Trump, regardless of numerous handicaps, begins as the odds – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump Three Dollar Bill…