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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be tough/ difficult, to precisely forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which normally, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous understanding, of his declarations, integrated with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, obvious, attracting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to appeal to his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will try to, briefly, think about, take a look at, review, and talk about, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, an effective message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the possible citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not get the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a significant number of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, need to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to much of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without enough detail, concerning costs! The real question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, almost ensure him, at least 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the way, the President campaigns, against them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous bombardment, and scare – strategies, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys show Biden is still leading, in lots of states, along with general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, must be concerning, as to how, he must stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the already, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his child, of unproven, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, specific components of the electorate, while likewise, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an option, has actually just recently, gotten into conflicts with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may become compromise candidates, or will not acquire adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, special technique, skipping the first 4 primaries, declining any outdoors funds, and thus, not participating in the celebration debates, and heavily investing his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will get sufficient traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the mix of skills, experience, know-how, Executive acumen, and implies to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, despite many handicaps, starts as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Sweatshirt…