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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ difficult, to precisely forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to point to the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which normally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant understanding, of his statements, integrated with the look of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, apparent, interesting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to attract his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election outcome is unpredictable! With that in mind, this short article will attempt to, briefly, think about, examine, examine, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the possible voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in enough numbers, resented, he did not obtain the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial number of them, either, chose Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, should have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to many of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without sufficient detail, regarding costs! The real concern, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the ultimate Democratic prospect, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the good friend of the President, because, his core fans/ base, nearly ensure him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President campaigns, versus them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant barrage, and scare – methods, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, lots of Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls show Biden is still leading, in lots of states, in addition to overall, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be worrying, as to how, he needs to stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the currently, existing attempts, at implicating him, and his son, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, certain components of the electorate, while likewise, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an option, has actually just recently, entered into disagreements with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise prospects, or won’t get sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, unique strategy, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, declining any outside funds, and hence, not participating in the party arguments, and heavily investing his own monies, on his campaign. Whether this will acquire enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of abilities, experience, knowledge, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, regardless of numerous handicaps, begins as the chances – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump Support Dollar Bills…