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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ challenging, to properly predict. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which usually, would nearly guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous perception, of his declarations, integrated with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s constant, apparent, interesting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to interest his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election outcome is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will attempt to, briefly, think about, analyze, examine, and go over, 5 factors, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, an effective message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the prospective voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in sufficient numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial number of them, either, voted for Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, should have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, strategies, without sufficient information, relating to costs! The real concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided celebration, is the good friend of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, almost guarantee him, at least 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President campaigns, against them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous barrage, and scare – strategies, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls suggest Biden is still leading, in many states, as well as total, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be concerning, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, specifically considering the already, existing attempts, at implicating him, and his child, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, certain aspects of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an alternative, has just recently, entered disputes with Warren, and doesn’t appear, trusted, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may end up being compromise candidates, or will not get enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, unique strategy, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outdoors funds, and thus, not taking part in the celebration disputes, and heavily spending his own monies, on his project. Whether this will get adequate traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of abilities, experience, knowledge, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the general election, doubts.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, in spite of numerous handicaps, begins as the odds – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump Shirts Walmart…