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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ difficult, to properly predict. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to point to the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which usually, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant perception, of his statements, combined with the appearance of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, obvious, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to appeal to his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, along with the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats attract, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will try to, quickly, think about, analyze, examine, and discuss, 5 factors, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, a reliable message, to beat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the possible citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in enough numbers, frowned at, he did not obtain the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial number of them, either, voted for Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, need to have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has attacked other Democrats, other than Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without sufficient information, regarding expenses! The real concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the good friend of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, almost guarantee him, at least 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the method, the President projects, against them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a consistent bombardment, and scare – methods, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and impacts: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls show Biden is still leading, in many states, along with overall, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, should be concerning, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the already, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his boy, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, particular aspects of the electorate, while likewise, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an alternative, has actually recently, entered into disputes with Warren, and does not appear, trusted, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise prospects, or won’t gain sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, distinct method, avoiding the first 4 primaries, declining any outdoors funds, and therefore, not taking part in the celebration debates, and greatly spending his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will gain enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of abilities, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, in spite of many handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Shirts Amazon…