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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be hard/ difficult, to properly forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to point to the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which usually, would almost guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant perception, of his statements, integrated with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s constant, evident, appealing to the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to interest his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election outcome is unpredictable! With that in mind, this short article will try to, briefly, think about, analyze, review, and go over, 5 reasons, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, an effective message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the candidates in the race, are thought about, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the possible citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in adequate numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a substantial number of them, either, chose Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, need to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a lot of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually attacked other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without enough information, regarding costs! The genuine question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic prospect, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided celebration, is the friend of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, nearly guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the way, the President campaigns, against them, using scary rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous barrage, and scare – methods, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls indicate Biden is still leading, in numerous states, in addition to overall, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be concerning, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the already, existing efforts, at implicating him, and his child, of unproven, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, specific aspects of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has actually recently, gotten into disagreements with Warren, and does not appear, relied on, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise candidates, or won’t get adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, unique method, skipping the first 4 primaries, declining any outdoors funds, and therefore, not participating in the celebration arguments, and heavily spending his own monies, on his project. Whether this will get enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the combination of abilities, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the basic election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, despite many handicaps, starts as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Lives Here Dollar Bill…