Trump Hundred Dollar Bill
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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be tough/ difficult, to precisely forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which typically, would nearly guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant perception, of his statements, integrated with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, obvious, attracting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to attract his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will try to, briefly, consider, analyze, examine, and discuss, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, an effective message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the possible citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a considerable variety of them, either, chose Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, need to have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without enough detail, concerning expenses! The real question, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their fans, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided celebration, is the good friend of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, nearly guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President projects, versus them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant bombardment, and scare – methods, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys show Biden is still leading, in many states, as well as total, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, should be worrying, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, especially considering the currently, existing efforts, at implicating him, and his boy, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might enthuse, specific aspects of the electorate, while also, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an option, has recently, entered disagreements with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may end up being compromise candidates, or won’t gain adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, unique method, avoiding the first 4 primaries, declining any outside funds, and therefore, not participating in the celebration debates, and greatly investing his own monies, on his campaign. Whether this will acquire enough traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the combination of skills, experience, competence, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, in spite of many handicaps, begins as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Hundred Dollar Bill…