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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is essential to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be tough/ tough, to accurately forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to point to the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which typically, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous understanding, of his statements, integrated with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s constant, evident, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, attitude relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to attract his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election outcome is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this article will attempt to, quickly, consider, analyze, review, and discuss, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (in other words, they may not, present, an effective message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the candidates in the race, are thought about, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the prospective citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in adequate numbers, resented, he did not get the Democratic election, and, in the basic election, a considerable variety of them, either, voted for Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, need to have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without adequate detail, relating to expenses! The real question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their fans, back the eventual Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the buddy of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, almost guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President campaigns, versus them, utilizing scary rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant bombardment, and scare – techniques, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It seems, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls indicate Biden is still leading, in many states, as well as general, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, should be worrying, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, especially considering the currently, existing efforts, at implicating him, and his son, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might enthuse, specific elements of the electorate, while also, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an alternative, has recently, gotten into conflicts with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise prospects, or will not get sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, unique strategy, skipping the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outdoors funds, and therefore, not taking part in the celebration arguments, and heavily investing his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will get adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of skills, experience, competence, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, regardless of numerous handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Gold Hundred Dollar Bill…