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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ challenging, to precisely anticipate. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which typically, would nearly guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant understanding, of his statements, integrated with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s consistent, obvious, appealing to the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to interest his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this short article will try to, quickly, consider, analyze, examine, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the prospective voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in sufficient numbers, frowned at, he did not get the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a significant number of them, either, voted for Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, ought to have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to a lot of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, plans, without enough detail, regarding costs! The genuine question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the eventual Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the good friend of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, nearly guarantee him, at least 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President campaigns, against them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a consistent bombardment, and scare – tactics, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls suggest Biden is still leading, in lots of states, along with total, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, ought to be worrying, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the currently, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his son, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, particular elements of the electorate, while likewise, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has just recently, entered disputes with Warren, and does not appear, relied on, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise prospects, or won’t get enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, special technique, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and therefore, not taking part in the party debates, and greatly spending his own cash, on his project. Whether this will acquire adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of abilities, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and suggests to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking odds, it appears, President Trump, in spite of many handicaps, starts as the chances – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump Dollar Bills 2020…