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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be tough/ difficult, to properly forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to point to the positive state of the economy, and work levels, which usually, would almost guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the continuous understanding, of his statements, integrated with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, apparent, appealing to the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to appeal to his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, along with the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this short article will try to, briefly, think about, examine, evaluate, and go over, 5 reasons, the President might be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: 2 of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the prospective citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in adequate numbers, frowned at, he did not get the Democratic nomination, and, in the basic election, a considerable number of them, either, chose Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, ought to have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to much of them! Elizabeth Warren has attacked other Democrats, other than Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without adequate information, relating to expenses! The genuine concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the eventual Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided celebration, is the friend of the President, because, his core fans/ base, nearly guarantee him, at least 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President projects, against them, utilizing scary rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous bombardment, and scare – techniques, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys suggest Biden is still leading, in lots of states, along with overall, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be concerning, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the currently, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his child, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, certain aspects of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an option, has recently, entered into disputes with Warren, and doesn’t appear, trusted, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise candidates, or won’t gain enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, distinct strategy, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outdoors funds, and hence, not participating in the celebration disputes, and heavily spending his own monies, on his project. Whether this will get sufficient traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the combination of skills, experience, competence, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it seems, President Trump, in spite of lots of handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump Dollar Bill Legal Tender…