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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to acknowledge, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ difficult, to accurately predict. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which generally, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the continuous understanding, of his declarations, combined with the appearance of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s constant, apparent, attracting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to interest his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election outcome is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will try to, quickly, think about, take a look at, review, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: 2 of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the potential citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in sufficient numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic election, and, in the basic election, a considerable variety of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, ought to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without sufficient detail, relating to costs! The genuine concern, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, nearly ensure him, at least 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the way, the President projects, against them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant bombardment, and scare – strategies, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, lots of Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys suggest Biden is still leading, in many states, in addition to total, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, should be concerning, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, especially thinking about the already, existing attempts, at implicating him, and his kid, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, particular elements of the electorate, while also, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an alternative, has just recently, entered into disagreements with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may end up being compromise prospects, or won’t acquire sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, special method, skipping the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outdoors funds, and hence, not participating in the celebration arguments, and greatly spending his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will acquire enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or someone, with the mix of skills, experience, expertise, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, in spite of many handicaps, starts as the chances – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump Dollar Bill 2020…