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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is very important to acknowledge, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be hard/ difficult, to precisely predict. On one hand, President Trump will be able to point to the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which normally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant perception, of his statements, combined with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s consistent, obvious, appealing to the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, attitude regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to appeal to his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats attract, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will try to, quickly, consider, take a look at, evaluate, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President might be reelected (in other words, they may not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the prospective citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, resented, he did not get the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial number of them, either, chose Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, must have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to many of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually attacked other Democrats, other than Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without sufficient information, concerning expenses! The genuine question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the good friend of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the way, the President campaigns, versus them, using frightening rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a consistent barrage, and scare – tactics, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls suggest Biden is still leading, in many states, along with total, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, ought to be concerning, regarding how, he should stand – up, to Trump, specifically considering the currently, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his kid, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, particular aspects of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has just recently, gotten into conflicts with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise candidates, or will not acquire sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, special technique, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, declining any outdoors funds, and hence, not taking part in the party disputes, and heavily spending his own monies, on his campaign. Whether this will acquire enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of abilities, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and suggests to win the basic election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it seems, President Trump, despite many handicaps, begins as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump And 20 Dollar Bill…