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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is very important to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ difficult, to precisely forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which typically, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the continuous understanding, of his declarations, combined with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, obvious, appealing to the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to appeal to his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will try to, briefly, consider, examine, evaluate, and discuss, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the candidates in the race, are thought about, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the prospective citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in sufficient numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a significant number of them, either, chose Trump, among the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, need to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to much of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without adequate detail, regarding costs! The real question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their advocates, back the eventual Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided celebration, is the good friend of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, nearly guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President projects, versus them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous bombardment, and scare – tactics, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys show Biden is still leading, in many states, as well as total, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, ought to be concerning, as to how, he should stand – up, to Trump, especially considering the already, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his kid, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, specific components of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an option, has recently, entered into disagreements with Warren, and does not appear, relied on, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may become compromise candidates, or won’t get enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, unique technique, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and therefore, not participating in the party arguments, and heavily spending his own monies, on his campaign. Whether this will gain adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of skills, experience, expertise, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, despite lots of handicaps, begins as the odds – on, preferred! Don’t forget your Trump 2020 Presidential Dollar Bill…