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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ difficult, to precisely anticipate. On one hand, President Trump will be able to point to the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which generally, would almost guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant perception, of his declarations, combined with the look of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s constant, evident, attracting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to appeal to his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats attract, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election outcome is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will try to, quickly, consider, examine, evaluate, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, an efficient message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the prospective citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not acquire the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a substantial variety of them, either, chose Trump, among the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, ought to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to many of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without enough information, regarding expenses! The real question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their advocates, back the eventual Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the friend of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, almost guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President campaigns, versus them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a consistent bombardment, and scare – techniques, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys show Biden is still leading, in numerous states, along with general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, must be worrying, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, particularly thinking about the already, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his son, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, specific elements of the electorate, while likewise, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has recently, entered disagreements with Warren, and does not appear, trusted, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may become compromise prospects, or won’t gain adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, unique technique, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and hence, not taking part in the party debates, and heavily investing his own monies, on his campaign. Whether this will acquire adequate traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of skills, experience, know-how, Executive acumen, and implies to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it appears, President Trump, regardless of many handicaps, begins as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump 20 Dollar Bill…