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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to acknowledge, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be tough/ tough, to properly forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which normally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant understanding, of his statements, combined with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s continuous, apparent, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, attitude relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to appeal to his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats attract, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this article will attempt to, briefly, think about, analyze, review, and discuss, 5 factors, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: 2 of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the potential citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in adequate numbers, resented, he did not get the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a significant variety of them, either, voted for Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, need to have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to many of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, plans, without enough detail, concerning expenses! The real concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their supporters, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the friend of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, nearly ensure him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the method, the President campaigns, versus them, using scary rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous bombardment, and scare – strategies, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls show Biden is still leading, in many states, in addition to total, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, ought to be worrying, regarding how, he needs to stand – up, to Trump, specifically considering the already, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his kid, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, particular components of the electorate, while likewise, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who appeared like an alternative, has actually just recently, entered into disagreements with Warren, and doesn’t appear, trusted, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise candidates, or will not gain adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, special method, skipping the first 4 primaries, declining any outside funds, and thus, not participating in the party debates, and greatly investing his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will gain enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the combination of abilities, experience, know-how, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the basic election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, despite numerous handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Trump 20 Dollar Bill In Pocket…