No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ challenging, to accurately anticipate. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which typically, would nearly guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous understanding, of his statements, combined with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s consistent, apparent, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to attract his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, thus, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this short article will try to, briefly, consider, analyze, evaluate, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they may not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the potential voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not obtain the Democratic nomination, and, in the basic election, a considerable variety of them, either, chose Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, must have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to much of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, plans, without sufficient information, concerning expenses! The genuine question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided celebration, is the friend of the President, because, his core fans/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President projects, versus them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous barrage, and scare – techniques, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, lots of Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls indicate Biden is still leading, in many states, along with overall, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, must be concerning, regarding how, he should stand – up, to Trump, specifically thinking about the already, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his boy, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, certain aspects of the electorate, while likewise, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an alternative, has recently, gotten into disputes with Warren, and does not appear, trusted, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may end up being compromise candidates, or won’t acquire adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, distinct technique, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and thus, not taking part in the celebration arguments, and heavily spending his own cash, on his project. Whether this will get sufficient traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of skills, experience, expertise, Executive acumen, and means to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, despite lots of handicaps, begins as the chances – on, favorite!