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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to acknowledge, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be tough/ difficult, to accurately forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which generally, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous perception, of his declarations, combined with the appearance of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s constant, obvious, interesting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to interest his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election outcome is unpredictable! With that in mind, this article will attempt to, quickly, consider, examine, evaluate, and discuss, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (simply put, they may not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the possible voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ advocates, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not obtain the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial number of them, either, chose Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who announced, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, need to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has attacked other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, plans, without sufficient information, regarding costs! The genuine question, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their fans, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided celebration, is the buddy of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, nearly ensure him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the method, the President projects, against them, utilizing scary rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous bombardment, and scare – tactics, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more powerful?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys indicate Biden is still leading, in many states, along with general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, should be worrying, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, particularly thinking about the already, existing efforts, at implicating him, and his boy, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may excite, certain aspects of the electorate, while also, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an alternative, has recently, entered into conflicts with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may end up being compromise candidates, or will not acquire sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, distinct strategy, avoiding the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outdoors funds, and thus, not participating in the party disputes, and greatly investing his own monies, on his project. Whether this will acquire adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of skills, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and implies to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, despite numerous handicaps, begins as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your President Trump Dollar Bill…