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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it’s important to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ tough, to precisely predict. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which usually, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous perception, of his statements, combined with the look of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s consistent, evident, interesting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to interest his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will attempt to, briefly, think about, examine, examine, and discuss, 5 reasons, the President may be reelected (simply put, they may not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the prospects in the race, are thought about, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the possible citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in sufficient numbers, felt bitter, he did not obtain the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a substantial variety of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, ought to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, strategies, without enough information, concerning expenses! The real question, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President projects, versus them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a consistent barrage, and scare – strategies, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys suggest Biden is still leading, in many states, in addition to overall, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, should be worrying, regarding how, he should stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the currently, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his son, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, certain components of the electorate, while likewise, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an option, has actually just recently, entered disagreements with Warren, and doesn’t appear, trusted, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may become compromise prospects, or won’t gain enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, special technique, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and hence, not taking part in the celebration arguments, and heavily spending his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will get adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the combination of skills, experience, proficiency, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, regardless of numerous handicaps, starts as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Melania Trump Dollar Bills…