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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is essential to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ challenging, to precisely predict. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and work levels, which normally, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant understanding, of his declarations, combined with the look of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s constant, obvious, interesting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to interest his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this short article will try to, quickly, think about, examine, evaluate, and discuss, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the potential citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in adequate numbers, frowned at, he did not get the Democratic nomination, and, in the basic election, a considerable variety of them, either, voted for Trump, among the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, need to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to much of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without sufficient detail, regarding costs! The real question, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their advocates, back the ultimate Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided celebration, is the buddy of the President, because, his core fans/ base, almost guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the method, the President projects, versus them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant bombardment, and scare – techniques, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys indicate Biden is still leading, in lots of states, as well as general, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, should be concerning, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, particularly considering the already, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his son, of unproven, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, specific aspects of the electorate, while also, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an option, has just recently, entered disputes with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may end up being compromise prospects, or won’t gain enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, distinct strategy, avoiding the first 4 primaries, declining any outside funds, and therefore, not participating in the celebration debates, and heavily spending his own cash, on his project. Whether this will gain sufficient traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of abilities, experience, expertise, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, in spite of many handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Free Trump Stuff…