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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ challenging, to precisely anticipate. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the positive state of the economy, and work levels, which usually, would nearly ensure an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the continuous perception, of his declarations, combined with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s constant, apparent, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, attitude concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to interest his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, along with the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election outcome is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will attempt to, quickly, think about, take a look at, evaluate, and discuss, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (in other words, they may not, present, an efficient message, to beat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the prospective voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in sufficient numbers, resented, he did not get the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial variety of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, must have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to a lot of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without enough information, regarding costs! The genuine concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, citizens will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their supporters, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core supporters/ base, almost ensure him, at least 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the method, the President projects, against them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous barrage, and scare – tactics, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their fear and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys indicate Biden is still leading, in numerous states, along with general, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be concerning, as to how, he must stand – up, to Trump, specifically thinking about the already, existing attempts, at implicating him, and his boy, of unproven, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, may enthuse, certain elements of the electorate, while likewise, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has recently, entered conflicts with Warren, and does not appear, trusted, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may become compromise prospects, or will not gain sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, distinct technique, skipping the very first 4 primaries, declining any outside funds, and hence, not taking part in the celebration disputes, and heavily investing his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will get sufficient traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of skills, experience, know-how, Executive acumen, and implies to win the basic election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking odds, it seems, President Trump, in spite of many handicaps, starts as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Etsy Trump Three Dollar Bill…