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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is very important to acknowledge, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be hard/ tough, to properly forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which normally, would almost guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the continuous perception, of his statements, combined with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours relating to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s constant, apparent, attracting the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to interest his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election outcome is unpredictable! With that in mind, this short article will attempt to, briefly, consider, analyze, evaluate, and talk about, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, an efficient message, to defeat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the candidates in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the possible voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, felt bitter, he did not obtain the Democratic election, and, in the basic election, a substantial number of them, either, voted for Trump, among the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it would not matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, should have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a number of them! Elizabeth Warren has attacked other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without enough information, regarding costs! The genuine concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Celebration for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their advocates, back the ultimate Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, nearly ensure him, at least 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President campaigns, against them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant barrage, and scare – techniques, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two candidates, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and effects: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys show Biden is still leading, in many states, as well as general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, must be worrying, regarding how, he should stand – up, to Trump, specifically thinking about the currently, existing efforts, at implicating him, and his son, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might enthuse, specific aspects of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an alternative, has actually just recently, gotten into disputes with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise candidates, or will not get adequate traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, unique method, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and thus, not taking part in the celebration disputes, and heavily investing his own monies, on his campaign. Whether this will gain enough traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as simply another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of abilities, experience, knowledge, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it appears, President Trump, in spite of lots of handicaps, starts as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Donald Trump 45 Dollar Bill…