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Despite one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is very important to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ challenging, to accurately forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to indicate the favorable state of the economy, and employment levels, which generally, would nearly guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant perception, of his statements, combined with the appearance of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s consistent, evident, appealing to the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, attitude relating to immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to attract his political base, while mobilizing, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats attract, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will attempt to, quickly, think about, examine, evaluate, and talk about, 5 factors, the President might be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, an effective message, to beat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: 2 of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the possible voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in adequate numbers, felt bitter, he did not obtain the Democratic nomination, and, in the basic election, a substantial variety of them, either, elected Trump, one of the minority prospects, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, ought to have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a lot of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without adequate information, regarding costs! The genuine concern, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the nominee: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their fans, back the ultimate Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the pal of the President, because, his core fans/ base, nearly guarantee him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President campaigns, versus them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might expect to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a consistent barrage, and scare – strategies, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls indicate Biden is still leading, in numerous states, in addition to general, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, must be concerning, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, specifically considering the currently, existing attempts, at accusing him, and his boy, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might enthuse, specific aspects of the electorate, while likewise, scaring others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an option, has actually recently, entered into conflicts with Warren, and doesn’t appear, trusted, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, may become compromise candidates, or will not gain sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, special technique, avoiding the first 4 primaries, declining any outdoors funds, and thus, not participating in the celebration debates, and heavily investing his own monies, on his project. Whether this will acquire sufficient traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the combination of skills, experience, know-how, Executive acumen, and implies to win the basic election, doubts.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it seems, President Trump, regardless of many handicaps, begins as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Donald Trump 100 Dollar Bill Gold…