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No matter one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is necessary to recognize, the Presidential election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be difficult/ difficult, to precisely predict. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to point to the positive state of the economy, and work levels, which normally, would nearly guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant understanding, of his statements, integrated with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misbehaviours concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s consistent, evident, interesting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset regarding immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, appears to attract his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, in addition to the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will try to, quickly, consider, take a look at, evaluate, and talk about, 5 factors, the President might be reelected (to put it simply, they might not, present, a reliable message, to defeat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are elected: Two of the candidates in the race, are thought about, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the possible citizens! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, frowned at, he did not obtain the Democratic nomination, and, in the general election, a substantial variety of them, either, voted for Trump, one of the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, should have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to much of them! Elizabeth Warren has assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, consisting of Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, plans, without enough detail, regarding expenses! The genuine question, with both these candidates, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the nominee, will their fans, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided celebration, is the good friend of the President, because, his core fans/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, entering into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidacy of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these voters, and, will the way, the President campaigns, versus them, using frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a continuous barrage, and scare – strategies, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, lots of Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Nominee – possibilities, and impacts: It appears, the field has narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys show Biden is still leading, in many states, as well as general, his propensity to put his foot, in his mouth, should be worrying, as to how, he must stand – up, to Trump, particularly thinking about the currently, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his child, of unproven, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, certain aspects of the electorate, while also, frightening others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an alternative, has actually recently, entered disputes with Warren, and doesn’t appear, trusted, by certain minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might end up being compromise prospects, or will not acquire enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, unique technique, avoiding the very first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and thus, not taking part in the celebration arguments, and heavily spending his own cash, on his project. Whether this will gain adequate traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as simply another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of abilities, experience, expertise, Executive acumen, and indicates to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking odds, it appears, President Trump, despite numerous handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your Authentic Trump 2 Dollar Bills…