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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is essential to acknowledge, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be hard/ challenging, to accurately forecast. On one hand, President Trump will be able to indicate the positive state of the economy, and employment levels, which normally, would almost guarantee an incumbent’s reelection. Nevertheless, the constant understanding, of his statements, integrated with the look of conflicts of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds concerning Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his method! This President’s consistent, evident, appealing to the coarser instincts of Americans, from his seeming, mindset concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to appeal to his political base, while setting in motion, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats interest, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, therefore, the election result is unpredictable! With that in mind, this post will attempt to, quickly, consider, examine, review, and go over, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (simply put, they might not, present, a reliable message, to beat him, at the surveys).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: 2 of the prospects in the race, are thought about, by some, as the most progressive, by some of the prospective voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, in sufficient numbers, resented, he did not obtain the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a significant number of them, either, elected Trump, among the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who proclaimed, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past 3 years, must have taught them a lesson! However, it appears, it has not, to many of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, other than Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while providing so – called, strategies, without adequate detail, regarding costs! The real concern, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – promising, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their advocates, back the eventual Democratic candidate, or repeat the mistakes of 2016? A divided party, is the good friend of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the polls? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the method, the President projects, against them, using scary rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant bombardment, and scare – tactics, affect things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, many Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, noted above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the polls, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It appears, the field has actually narrowed, from over 20 prospects, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While surveys indicate Biden is still leading, in numerous states, along with general, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, need to be worrying, regarding how, he should stand – up, to Trump, particularly thinking about the currently, existing efforts, at implicating him, and his child, of unverified, misconduct! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, certain elements of the electorate, while also, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who seemed like an option, has recently, entered into disagreements with Warren, and does not appear, relied on, by specific minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise candidates, or will not get sufficient traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an unusual, distinct strategy, skipping the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and therefore, not participating in the celebration disputes, and greatly spending his own cash, on his project. Whether this will gain enough traction, and whether, he will be viewed, as just another billionaire, or someone, with the combination of skills, experience, knowledge, Executive acumen, and means to win the general election, doubts.
As you can see, this is made complex. If we were taking odds, it seems, President Trump, despite lots of handicaps, starts as the odds – on, favorite! Don’t forget your 20 Dollar Bill Donald Trump Lives Here…