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Regardless of one’s political beliefs, or, who they support, it is very important to recognize, the Governmental election of 2020, as it appears, now, will be challenging/ tough, to precisely forecast. On one hand, President Trump will have the ability to point to the positive state of the economy, and work levels, which typically, would almost ensure an incumbent’s reelection. However, the constant understanding, of his statements, combined with the look of disputes of interest, plus suspicions of misdeeds regarding Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, etc, stand in his way! This President’s constant, apparent, attracting the coarser impulses of Americans, from his seeming, mindset concerning immigrants, White Supremacists, etc, on one hand, seems to interest his political base, while activating, both, those who support him, as well as the opposition. On the other hand, the Democrats appeal to, once again, be doing, the political equivalent, of, shooting themselves, in the leg, and, hence, the election result is unforeseeable! With that in mind, this post will try to, briefly, think about, take a look at, review, and talk about, 5 factors, the President may be reelected (in other words, they might not, present, a reliable message, to beat him, at the polls).
1. If Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren, are chosen: Two of the prospects in the race, are considered, by some, as the most progressive, by a few of the potential voters! In 2016, Bernie Sanders’ fans, in enough numbers, frowned at, he did not get the Democratic election, and, in the general election, a considerable variety of them, either, elected Trump, among the minority candidates, or didn’t vote, at all! For those, who declared, it wouldn’t matter, whether Trump, or Clinton, won, that election, the past three years, must have taught them a lesson! Nevertheless, it appears, it has not, to a lot of them! Elizabeth Warren has actually assaulted other Democrats, except Bernie, including Mayor Pete, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, while presenting so – called, plans, without adequate information, concerning expenses! The real question, with both these prospects, is how would they get the Congress to vote them, into law, and without that, voters will blame the Democratic Party for over – appealing, etc!
2. If Bernie and Liz aren’t the candidate: If neither Mr. Sanders, or Ms, Warren, are the candidate, will their advocates, back the eventual Democratic prospect, or repeat the errors of 2016? A divided party, is the buddy of the President, because, his core advocates/ base, almost ensure him, a minimum of 35%, going into the 2020 elections!
3. How might Independents vote?: How will the Independents vote, and, will they, even go, to the surveys? Will the candidateship of, either, Sanders or Warren, scare – off, these citizens, and, will the method, the President campaigns, against them, utilizing frightening rhetoric? We might anticipate to witness, labels, such as, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Socialists, Communists, etc, and how might, a constant barrage, and scare – strategies, impact things?
4. How might Moderates vote? As above, numerous Moderates might fear either, of the two prospects, listed above? Would that drive them to the Republican incumbent, or keep them, from going to the surveys, or would their worry and dislike of Trump, be more effective?
5. Candidate – possibilities, and effects: It seems, the field has narrowed, from over 20 candidates, to about 6 – 8 possibilities! While polls show Biden is still leading, in many states, in addition to overall, his tendency to put his foot, in his mouth, must be concerning, regarding how, he must stand – up, to Trump, specifically thinking about the currently, existing efforts, at accusing him, and his son, of unverified, misbehavior! Sanders and Warren, on one hand, might excite, certain components of the electorate, while also, terrifying others! Mayor Pete, who looked like an alternative, has just recently, entered into conflicts with Warren, and doesn’t appear, relied on, by particular minorities! Senators Biden, and Klobuchar, might become compromise candidates, or will not get enough traction. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is following an uncommon, special method, avoiding the first 4 primaries, not accepting any outside funds, and therefore, not taking part in the celebration debates, and heavily investing his own cash, on his campaign. Whether this will acquire sufficient traction, and whether, he will be perceived, as just another billionaire, or somebody, with the mix of skills, experience, know-how, Executive acumen, and suggests to win the general election, is uncertain.
As you can see, this is complicated. If we were taking chances, it appears, President Trump, regardless of many handicaps, begins as the chances – on, favorite! Don’t forget your 1000 Dollar Trump Gold Bill…